PAC Newsletter
2008 ~ Issue 4
Overview
Democrats have won the last three House special
elections (Illinois, Louisiana and Mississippi), resulting in
speculation among many political commentators that the Fall
elections will be difficult for Republicans. Adding to the
advantage of the Democrats is the fact that they are running
many well-funded challengers.
According to Congressional Quarterly, Democrats
make up nine of the 10 most cash-rich challengers to
incumbents. The only Republican, Sandy Treadwell, is running
against Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand in New York’s 20th
District. This issue will highlight a number of those races,
where our incumbents need strong financial support, as well as
other key races.
Connecticut
Rep. Chris Shays recently received the strong
endorsement of Republican elected officials during the district
nominating convention. In comments to the gathering of
Republicans who nominated him, Shays noted that bipartisanship
was part of his DNA, as well as the presumptive GOP presidential
nominee, Senator John McCain. Many of the Republican leaders
and voters who gathered repeated Shays' campaign mantra, saying
that he is a leader who listens to his constituents and votes
with his conscience rather than along party lines. "I don't
care who you are, you're not going to agree with everything your
Congressman does," said Lois Pontbriant, town clerk in Stamford
for 24 years until she retired in 1999. "But he's very sincere
in all he does."
Lt. Governor Michael Fedele praised Shays, saying
"Chris Shays embodies qualities not always seen nowadays in
politics. It's an honor to work so closely with Chris, who
understands his district so well. Chris has been a leader on
all the important issues of the day, such as moving our country
toward energy independence, improving our infrastructure,
increasing access to affordable health care and confronting
Islamic terrorists."
Nominated to oppose Shays, Democrat Jim Himes has
already raised $1.1 million, drawing upon his decade long
position as an investment banker at Goldman Sachs.
Maine
Campaign financing reports show that the Maine Senate
race may set fundraising and spending records. Senator Susan
Collins raised nearly $1 million in the first three months
of 2008 and has cash on hand of more than $4.5 million. But
challenger Rep. Tom Allen nearly matched Collins, having raised
$700,000 and holding a cash balance of $3.7 million.
Collins won comfortably in 2002, with 58% of the vote,
but Democrats are making a major push in 2008. Critical
Insights, an independent polling firm in Maine, shows a tight
race with “not a lot of undecided voters.” They indicate that
Allen is well-regarded and has good name identification, but
that voters are generally satisfied with Collins. The question
becomes, “whether people will vote against an incumbent they are
happy with.”
The Collins campaign is running hard, and believes her
strong reputation as a person that can get things done will win
her a majority. They note that independents make up the
majority of the Maine electorate, and hold the view that Mainers
want a common sense centrist.
Ohio 14
Rep. Steve LaTourette will also face a well
funded Democrat, former state appellate judge Bill O’Neill.
O’Neill raised nearly $250,000 in the first quarter of 2008.
The Cleveland Plain Dealer recently praised
LaTourette for his work on legislation to help homeowners facing
foreclosure problems. In an editorial, the paper praised
LaTourette (and fellow Banking Committee Member Deborah Pryce),
noting that under the formula initially proposed in committee,
the lion's share of the money would have gone to California,
because allocation was based on statewide home values. But
LaTourette and others argued that was unfair to states like
Ohio, with lower home prices. “They persuaded their colleagues
to accept a revised calculation that should make about $600
million - and maybe much more - available to Ohio. That's at
least $150 million more than would have come here under the
initial proposal.”
Ohio 15
In a district left open by retiring Congresswoman
Deborah Pryce, Republicans nominated State Senator Steve
Stivers. Stivers formerly was in the banking industry as
well as serving as a local party official in Franklin County.
Senator Stivers is currently a Lieutenant Colonel in the Ohio
Army National Guard. His unit was activated in October 2004 and
he served in Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar and Djibouti for one year. He
was awarded a Bronze Star for his accomplishments as a battalion
commander during Operation Iraqi Freedom.
Stivers will be opposed by Mary Jo Kilroy, who nearly
upset Pryce in 2006. Kilroy has continued to campaign non-stop
since that loss, and is one of the leading Democratic candidates
in fundraising. She raised over $1.2 million in the first
quarter of 2008 and had nearly $1 million cash on hand. Stivers
raised nearly $800,000 and had about $600,000 cash on hand.
Oregon
Senator Gordon Smith continues to run a strong campaign
and some political commentators believe the primary fight
between Democrats Jeff Merkley, state House Speaker, and party
Activist Steve Novick, will weaken the eventual nominee.
Senator Smith continues to build on his strong record of
independence for Oregon by stressing several key issues. Among
them is making health care more affordable. Senator Smith
believes no one should be priced out of quality health care, and
is advancing legislation that would lower the number of
uninsured and drive health care costs down. He has strengthened
and protected federal programs such as Medicare and fought for
vital safety-net programs including Medicaid and the State
Children’s Health Insurance Program (SCHIP).
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania again is likely to be extremely competitive for
House races, as it was in 2006. Four of the 30 seats Democrats
wrested from Republicans nationally in their successful drive
for a House majority were in Pennsylvania, and the Republicans
are staging bids to recapture three of them. But Democrats are
working to expand their 2006 gains, are running takeover bids in
four of the Pennsylvania districts that the Republicans still
hold.
In the 6th district, which is largely the
Philadelphia suburbs, three-term Republican Rep. Jim Gerlach
will be challenged by Democratic businessman Bob Roggio.
Gerlach has won all three of his elections with just 51 percent
of the vote, last year having a less than 4,000 vote victory.
That history suggests another close race for Gerlach, whose
suburban and exurban district is one of eight nationwide that
voted Democratic for president in 2004 but is represented in the
House by a Republican.
Many political experts say that Gerlach has demonstrated his
ability to win these close elections. According to
Congressional Quarterly, Gerlach’s 2006 defeat of Democratic
lawyer Lois Murphy, whom he also beat in 2004, “demonstrated his
formidable political skills in an election year that was
terrible for Republicans in Pennsylvania and across the nation.
Roggio, though now described by party officials as a competitive
challenger, was far from the first candidate choice of
Democratic officials.”
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