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John
Baer | Toomey's chances of beating Specter?
SOMEWHERE
OVER THE RAINBOW
By
John Baer
WATCHING
Pennsylvania
politics
is often like a visit to Oz.
Take
the Senate Republican primary set for April 27.
When
I look at four-term incumbent Arlen Specter, his style,
drive, record, money, and challenger Pat Toomey, what I
think is this: pay no attention to the man behind the
screen.
That
would be Illinois-native Stephen Moore, former Heritage
Foundation Fellow, adviser to Dick Armey and current chief
of the conservative D.C.-based Club for Growth.
Moore
's raising
dough for Toomey ($750,000 so far, with a goal of another $1
million) in what
Moore
calls,
"far and away the most important" effort the
club's mounted since it was founded in 1999.
He's
also promoting this other-world fantasy that the 73-year-old
moderate Specter faces trouble from 42-year-old rightie
Toomey.
I'm
thinking, yeah, when monkeys fly.
The
idea is that Specter's always vulnerable because he's
"liberal" and pro-government, and conservatives
now have a candidate to take him out.
The
idea's brainless.
Specter
(who, I'd remind you, is from
Kansas
) has
passed all manner of tests, physical and political, over a
career longer than Toomey's life.
The
guy's a survivor.
I've
tried for years to push him off pace with questions about
his single-bullet theory, Anita Hill, Scottish law. Can't be
done.
If
there are politicians better at straddling issues and
seeming sensible doing so, I've haven't met them.
But
let's look at the contest.
While
it's true the right dislikes Arlen because he's pro-choice,
he stopped Bob Bork and he isn't shy about spending tax
dollars,
Moore
tells me
the race is more about liking Toomey.
He
calls the
Allentown
congressman "A rising star...the future of our
party," and says, "He's got real star power."
Really?
I've met Toomey. I wonder if
Moore
has.
I
also wonder if Toomey thought it smart to vote against
President Bush's Medicare reform bill while running in a
state with the nation's second-highest elderly population,
who are mostly fond of the president.
Or
whether Toomey has any sense what it takes to run statewide
in a state as wide as
Pennsylvania
when
nobody knows who you are.
Pittsburgh
conservative analyst and radio talk-show host Jerry Bowyer
does: "Look, I'd like nothing better than to take out
Arlen, but in
Pennsylvania
the great
barrier reef is going from a regional politician to
statewide politician in one election without a big
boat."
Toomey,
in my view, doesn't have a paddle.
Specter
will outspend him five, six, seven to one.
Among
the eight counties with the most GOP registration -
Allegheny, Bucks,
Chester
,
Delaware
,
Lancaster
,
Montgomery
,
Philadelphia
and
York
- five
are in Specter's career-long base, none are in Toomey's.
The
state holds historical affection for moderates - Heinz,
Thornburgh, Ridge, Specter - and having elected one
right-wing senator (Rick Santorum) won't rush to make it two
for two.
Toomey
makes much of public support from Bork, Ed Meese
and Steve Forbes. Specter's got Bush, Cheney and Santorum.
You decide.
And
even though some say Arlen's support isn't deep and
conservative voters are passionate against him, I say so
what?
Anybody
thinking the state's hard-right vote is enough to win a
statewide race is thinking somewhere over the rainbow.
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