10/9/2003

The time for giggling over the political rumpus in California's recall election is over. For all its carnival attributes, this election has sent some clear messages across the nation and they should be acknowledged.

Arnold Schwarzenegger's easy victory over hordes of gubernatorial wannabes is significant because, as a Republican, he looks a lot more like the Rockefeller Republicans of the past - liberal on social issues, moderately conservative on fiscal matters - than the hard-core right-wing Republicans who now dominate that party.

Gov.-elect Schwarzenegger turned out to be a crossover candidate who attracted a fair portion of the Democratic electorate. To be sure, those were Democrats most displeased with Gov. Gray Davis' stewardship, but significantly they didn't turn to Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante or any of the other candidates. Most of them voted for the Arnold.

For Republicans, it is a sign that in heavily Democratic states like California, the key is to turn to moderates who can win Democratic votes.

For Democrats, there are two messages: Special-interest pandering loses more votes than it wins, and disaffected Democrats have a place to go if Republicans re-energize their moderate wing.

This was not an election about whether Mr. Schwarzenegger had the experience to govern. It was about throwing out Gray Davis and replacing him with someone with no strings attached to special interests.

Those same interests will try to get their hooks into the new governor. They have deep alliances in California's Democratic-controlled Legislature. Mr. Schwarzenegger's early days will be judged by how well he fends them off. He will find it much more difficult to brush special pleaders aside as governor than it was to campaign against them.

The California recall was a seminal event with national significance. It means that both major parties need to take a hard look at the conventional wisdom that frames their views of themselves and their constituencies. And then they must adjust for the future. The party that capitalizes on the lessons of California is likely to be triumphant next year.