The
time for giggling over the political rumpus in California's recall
election is over. For all its carnival attributes, this election
has sent some clear messages across the nation and they should be
acknowledged.
Arnold
Schwarzenegger's easy victory over hordes of gubernatorial
wannabes is significant because, as a Republican, he looks a lot
more like the Rockefeller Republicans of the past - liberal on
social issues, moderately conservative on fiscal matters - than
the hard-core right-wing Republicans who now dominate that party.
Gov.-elect
Schwarzenegger turned out to be a crossover candidate who
attracted a fair portion of the Democratic electorate. To be sure,
those were Democrats most displeased with Gov. Gray Davis'
stewardship, but significantly they didn't turn to Lt. Gov. Cruz
Bustamante or any of the other candidates. Most of them voted for
the Arnold.
For
Republicans, it is a sign that in heavily Democratic states like
California, the key is to turn to moderates who can win Democratic
votes.
For
Democrats, there are two messages: Special-interest pandering
loses more votes than it wins, and disaffected Democrats have a
place to go if Republicans re-energize their moderate wing.
This
was not an election about whether Mr. Schwarzenegger had the
experience to govern. It was about throwing out Gray Davis and
replacing him with someone with no strings attached to special
interests.
Those
same interests will try to get their hooks into the new governor.
They have deep alliances in California's Democratic-controlled
Legislature. Mr. Schwarzenegger's early days will be judged by how
well he fends them off. He will find it much more difficult to
brush special pleaders aside as governor than it was to campaign
against them.
The
California recall was a seminal event with national significance.
It means that both major parties need to take a hard look at the
conventional wisdom that frames their views of themselves and
their constituencies. And then they must adjust for the future.
The party that capitalizes on the lessons of California is likely
to be triumphant next year.