WASHINGTON — Conservative Democratic Utah Rep. Jim
Matheson (search) appears
to have little in common with presumptive Democratic
presidential nominee John
Kerry (search),
and the likelihood that the liberal senator from
Massachusetts can and will help the Westerner through a
tough re-election bid is pretty slim.
Waving President Bush’s
name is also unlikely to boost some of the more moderate
Republicans in states like Connecticut, New Jersey and
California, election observers told Foxnews.com.
The potential for the top
of the ticket to be a drag on certain congressional
candidates is not unusual, and often leads to candidates
focusing more on local issues than stumping on the
national party line, said Nathan Gonzales, political
editor of the Rothenberg
Political Report (search).
“There is definitely the potential for
a disconnect between the
member or candidate for Congress and the presidential
nominee,” Gonzales added. “Their past votes, their
record and past actions often don’t line up with
individuals further down on the ballot.”
While Kerry lists
endorsements from over 80 members of Congress on his Web
site, only 12 are from the deep
South and they are the most liberal districts offered in
states like Texas,
Georgia, South Carolina and Arkansas. Analysts say some
Democrats, particularly in Southern states, are finding
it difficult to get excited about Kerry, whose record
includes a consistent defense of
abortion rights and opposition to tax cuts and
the death penalty
(search).
“Think of every time
the Democrats have nominated a liberal for
president — Walter Mondale in 1984, Michael Dukakis in
1988, and arguably [Al] Gore in 2000 — you better
believe the Southern candidates ran in the other
direction,” said Larry Sabato,
director of the Center for Politics at the University of
Virginia.
“It’s a weight and an
albatross that [Democrats] don’t need,”
Sabato said, referring to
Kerry's voting record. “Despite his Vietnam War record,
he is a classic Massachusetts liberal with 19 years of
liberal votes in the U.S. Senate.”
Political observers say Democratic candidates aren't the
only ones who may distance themselves from the party
nominee, nor is the attempt to do so anything new.
Republicans have stayed away from nominees who hailed
from the far right, for instance, Sen. Barry Goldwater
in 1964. And not all Republican incumbents or GOP
challengers — especially from more liberal districts in
places like New England, Illinois and California — going
to draw strong associations with this president.
“We would immediately
have to look towards New England and some of those
tougher states,” said Gonzales. “That’s probably one
place where buddying up to
the president may not be beneficial.”
But
while it is widely acknowledged on Capitol Hill that not
all Democrats from conservative states will be actively
endorsing and fund-raising for Kerry, Democratic sources
said congressional members would stand in Kerry's
corner. Furthermore, Democratic activists said voters
see a much higher goal uniting ideologically-divided
party members: getting rid of Bush.
“There is no doubt that [Kerry] is more liberal than the
average Southern Democrat, but there are many Democrats
who want that White House back,” said Tony Center, a
Democrat from Savannah, Ga., who is competing in the
primary to challenge Republican Rep. Max Burns in the
state's 12th Congressional District.
“George Bush has
divided this country,” Center said. “I know in Georgia,
the grassroots Democrats are running around like a
kicked-over ant bed.”
Georgia's 12th District
voters chose Gore over Bush 54
percent to 45 percent in 2000, and has more
registered Democrats than Republicans. In other Southern
districts, however, Democratic incumbents and
challengers are running in conservative, pro-Bush
territory, making it nearly impossible to associate with
liberals from New England.
Matheson spokesman Mike
Reberg said the 2nd District
in Utah that his boss represents is conservative, giving
Bush 67 percent of the vote in 2000. Matheson beat his
Republican challenger by less than 1 percent of the vote
in 2002.
Reberg
said Matheson endorsed Gen. Wesley Clark before he
dropped out of the presidential primary and endorsed
Kerry. But Kerry shouldn't expect much more.
“[Rep. Matheson] campaigns in a manner that makes sense
for his district,” Reberg
said. “He is going to support his party’s nominee. And
that’s the line he has taken.”
Rep.
Dennis Moore, D-Kan., also facing a tough re-election
bid in a district that gave Bush 53 percent of the vote,
will support the party nominee, said spokeswoman
Christie Appelhanz. But he
has not yet decided whether to make an endorsement.
“He
doesn’t get very involved in the presidential race,”
Appelhanz said.
Election experts said
Republicans who may step back from Bush could include
Rep. Christopher Shays
(search),
who represents a moderate district of Connecticut that
voted for Gore 53 to 43 percent in 2000, or Rep. Jack
Quinn of New York, whose district is majority Democrat.
But
Quinn spokesman Charlie Keller denied any effort by the
lawmaker to distance himself from Bush. Despite
"substantive differences" with the Bush administration,
Quinn plans to "support [Bush's] steady leadership"
during the campaign and does not expect voters at home
to have a problem with that, Keller said.
Sarah Chamberlain Resnick,
director of the Republican
Main Street Partnership (search),
a coalition of moderate members of Congress, said even
the most liberal Republicans are intensely loyal to Bush
these days.
“They
line up on key issues like education and health care,
but I think what it comes down to is party loyalty,” she
said. “They are very eager to support (Bush) and work
for him.”
Rick
Semiatin, professor of
government at American University, warned against
disregarding similar Democratic Party loyalties, and
said Kerry might even tap a running mate who will
attract some of the fence-sitters.
“It’s
too early to write Kerry off in the South,” he said.
Sabato
pointed out that many Democratic strategists believe
that Kerry can win the election without the strong
endorsements from Democrats there.
“Kerry and the Democrats believe that Bush has polarized
the country to the extent that Kerry can be himself,
which is liberal, and carry
his Democratic states, pick off one or two of Bush’s
states and he’s won the election,” Sabato
said. “They may be right, they may be wrong.”