By Janet Hook -- Los Angeles Times
Sen.
Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania, an embattled Republican
with strong backing from President Bush, narrowly
defeated a conservative challenger Tuesday in a primary
widely viewed as a proxy fight over the GOP's
ideological direction.
With 98% of the state's precincts reporting, Specter had
51% of the vote to Rep. Patrick J. Toomey's 49%.
Tuesday's tight race vote culminated a long, expensive
and bitter fight between Specter and Toomey, a
little-known House member who accused the incumbent of
straying too far from their party's conservative
principles on tax cuts, abortion rights and other
issues.
The primary contest was watched nationally because of
its potential impact on this year's presidential race
and the Republican battle to keep or expand its narrow
Senate majority.
Pennsylvania is among the largest states viewed as up
for grabs between Bush and the presumed Democratic
presidential nominee, Sen. John F. Kerry of
Massachusetts.
Specter argued -- and many analysts agree -- that it
would be harder for Bush to carry the narrowly divided
state if the more conservative Toomey were on the ticket
with him.
In remarks to supporters in Philadelphia before the
final result was known, Specter acknowledged the tough
fight he had faced.
"It's been a very, very difficult campaign," he said.
In the general election, Specter will face Democrat
Joseph M. Hoeffel, a House member from the Philadelphia
suburbs who easily won his party's Senate primary
Tuesday.
A key question raised by the GOP primary is whether
Specter can win over the large number of Republicans who
voted against him.
Hoeffel said Tuesday night that Specter's "vulnerability
was clearly demonstrated in this primary.''
A Senate loss in Pennsylvania could jeopardize
Republican control of the 100-member chamber, where the
party has 51 seats.
And Bush would have a much harder time getting his
agenda through Congress if he won a second term but his
party lost its Senate majority.
The Pennsylvania GOP primary was viewed as a potential
bellwether for the party as a whole.
The contest turned into a high-profile test of strength
between the party's staunchest conservatives and its
dwindling moderate wing -- an ideological division that
Bush had tried to straddle by defining himself as a
"compassionate conservative."
Steve Moore, president of the Club for Growth -- a
conservative group that poured money into Toomey's
campaign -- said he was disappointed but not surprised
that Specter won because of his enormous financial
advantage and the weight of Bush's endorsement.
"This was always a David vs. Goliath situation," Moore
said. "Goliaths usually win."
Moderate Republicans hailed the result as a victory for
those who believe the GOP needs to have broad appeal to
centrists as well as conservatives if it is to enjoy
broad electoral success.
"There are some places in this country that moderate
Republicans need to hold -- or else the seats will
become Democratic,'' said Sarah Chamberlain Resnick,
executive director of the
Republican Main Street
Partnership.
Toomey, 42, ran a strong race against Specter by tapping
into conservative frustration not just with the 24-year
Senate veteran but with the Republican national
leadership. Toomey, from Allentown, and other
conservatives have fumed as Bush and congressional GOP
leaders have supported big increases in spending,
including last year's expansion of Medicare.
Specter, 74, fought back vigorously with arguments that
Pennsylvania could not afford to lose his seniority and
clout in the Senate, where he has been able to funnel
billions of dollars for projects and aid to the state.
Specter, a former lawyer in Philadelphia, is among the
best-known of the dwindling ranks of Rockefeller
Republicans-- moderate GOP politicians from the
Northeast. The drain on this wing of the party
accelerated in recent weeks, as two New York Republican
congressmen -- Amo Houghton and Jack Quinn -- announced
they would not run for reelection.
The GOP has become increasingly dominated by
conservatives as its base shifted to the South and West
in recent decades.
Many of these conservatives refer to the likes of
Specter as RINOs --
Republicans in Name Only.
Despite Toomey's loss, conservative activists hope his
showing will send a cautionary message to other moderate
Republicans: They, too, could face career-threatening
and expensive primary opposition if they stray from
their party line.
For most of the campaign, Specter held a commanding lead
in the polls over Toomey.
But his margin narrowed sharply dramatically in recent
weeks. Specter apparently reaped big political benefits
from a campaign appearance for him last week by Bush.
The president also was featured in one of Specter's last
television ads. "I'm going to say it as plainly as I
can: Arlen Specter is the right man for the United
States Senate," Bush said in the ad. "I'm proud to say,
I think he's earned another term."
Hoeffel will try to use Bush's role to his advantage.
Specter, he said, "needed Bush to drag him over the
finish line. He's demonstrated he's [Bush's] senator.
He's not Pennsylvania's senator.''
Others in the GOP establishment rallied to help Specter.
Virginia Sen. George Allen,
chairman of the National Republican
Senatorial Committee, urged Specter's colleagues to chip
in if they had not already.
At least 17 Republican senators donated a total of
$102,500 to Specter, according to an Allen aide.
Against that formidable array of establishment power,
Toomey's surge in the polls was all the more noteworthy.
In the final weeks of the campaign, it became clear he
had tapped into the ire of conservatives over Specter's
defections from the party line. He blocked President
Reagan's nomination of Robert H. Bork to the Supreme
Court, refused to vote for convicting President Clinton
in his impeachment trial and joined with other centrists
in efforts to scale back Bush's 2001 tax cut bill.