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by Kathy Kiely -- USA Today
ALTOONA, Pa. -- Outside the TV studio where two U.S.
Senate candidates were about to debate, Paul Good was
smiling through the chill drizzle. ''We finally have a
chance to get Arlen Specter out of the Senate,'' he said.
Good is a Republican. So is Specter. But the Grand Old Party
is having a family feud this spring in a state where it
needs key victories in November to help Republicans maintain
control of the White House and the Senate.
With a small group of fellow Republicans, Good stood in the
rain to show support for Pat Toomey, Specter's challenger in
the April 27 primary. The three-term congressman, 42, is
proving a surprisingly strong candidate. Specter, 74, is
seeking a fifth term. He has drawn intense opposition from
conservatives in and outside the state.
President Bush is backing Specter even though they've been
at odds on some key issues. Specter opposes the president's
limitations on stem-cell research. He is skeptical of the
White House effort to rewrite overtime regulations. He voted
to reduce the Bush tax cuts. He doesn't think the federal
government should ban abortions and he's cool to a
constitutional ban on same-sex marriages.
Presidents usually support incumbents of their own party,
but the all-out enthusiasm of the White House in this case
is notable. Vice President Cheney, chief of staff Andy Card
and Bush political adviser Karl Rove all have helped Specter
raise money. Bush is expected at a fundraiser in Pittsburgh
on April 19. Other Republican icons -- Ed Meese, attorney
general for President Reagan, former judge Robert Bork and
former presidential candidate Steve Forbes -- have headlined
fundraisers for Toomey.
The race has turned into one of the toughest of Specter's
nearly four-decade career. It's an ideological battle that
highlights the split between the Republican Party's moderate
and conservative wings. It's also emblematic of the internal
debate party strategists are having about how best to ensure
the president's re-election.
Specter personifies the philosophy of those who believe that
Bush needs to moderate his platform and persona to win
independent voters and some Democrats. Toomey is the darling
of conservatives who want the president to emphasize tax
cuts, free-market economics and traditional family values to
energize his Republican base.
Each candidate insists he can help Bush win Pennsylvania.
The president lost the state by 5 percentage points in 2000
and is working hard to win its 21 electoral votes this year.
Bush's trip to Pittsburgh will be his 27th visit to
Pennsylvania as president. Toomey, whose grass-roots
campaign is winning praise even from some Specter
supporters, says he'll bring a flood of enthusiastic
conservatives to the polls: ''All the energy of the campaign
is with me.''
But even some Republican conservatives think Specter
strengthens the ticket. ''Arlen can reach people who may not
go to events for the president,'' state Sen. John Pippy
says. Among those are voters in the Philadelphia suburbs,
Specter's home turf and a key to a Republican win in
Pennsylvania.
Specter's is one of 34 Senate seats up in this election: 19
are held by Democrats and 15 by Republicans. Toomey's
backers say he'll strengthen the party's one-vote majority
in the Senate by being a more reliably Republican vote. They
say the state's other Republican senator, Rick Santorum, has
proven that a conservative can win in Pennsylvania.
But Santorum is supporting Specter. He says his Senate
colleague has the best chance to defeat the Democratic
candidate, suburban Philadelphia congressman Joe Hoeffel, in
a state where Democrats still hold a slight lead in voter
registration. ''I want to win,'' Santorum says.
Specter should be invincible: As of last month, he had more
than $9.2 million in his campaign treasury; Toomey had just
over $2 million. The Keystone Poll, released last week,
showed Specter with a 13-percentage-point lead among likely
primary voters. More than half of those surveyed said they
didn't know enough about Toomey to have an opinion of him.
Even so, Specter is ''clearly worried,'' says Rick
Bloomingdale, secretary-treasurer of the Pennsylvania
AFL-CIO, which has endorsed him. ''He's running as hard as
if it were his first election.''
One reason for the senator's concern: With the presidential
nominations locked up, there's little interest in the
primary. ''If only conservatives show up at the polls, it's
possible Arlen could face an upset,'' says Rep. Phil
English, R-Pa., who supports Specter.
Another complicating factor: outside money. The Club for
Growth, an organization that supports free-market fiscal
policies and lower taxes, has mounted a $1 million ad
campaign on Toomey's behalf. Club for Growth members have
given another $775,000 to his campaign. The Main Street
Republican Partnership, a group of moderate Republicans, is
responding with $225,000 in contributions to Specter from
members and about $100,000 in ads.
Both candidates have blue-collar backgrounds. Specter's
father was a tailor and junkyard owner. Toomey's laid cable
for an electric company. Both sons got Ivy League degrees.
But the generational contrast is stark.
Specter began his public career with the investigation of
President Kennedy's assassination, an event that occurred
just two years after Toomey was born. As a staffer for the
Warren Commission, he helped develop the single-bullet
theory, which held that Lee Harvey Oswald was the sole
gunman. When Specter was elected to the Senate in 1980,
left-of-center Republicans like him were a third of the
party's Senate caucus; now, Specter represents an
increasingly rare species.
Toomey is a committed conservative who votes against labor's
positions in a state where many politicians dare not do
that. He backs free-trade deals even though his district, a
former steelmaking area, has seen many jobs go overseas.
Toomey accepted $500 from Republicans for Choice, an
abortion rights group, in his first congressional race. Now,
leading abortion opponents back him. He says his 3-year-old
daughter's birth convinced him that ''I had to have a
consistently pro-life record.''
In the end, weather may be the deciding factor. Fewer than
600,000 of the state's 3.1 million Republicans voted in the
past two statewide primaries. For both candidates, says
Pittsburgh political analyst Jon Delano, ''Turnout will be
key.'' |