National Journal's CongressDaily
HOUSE RACES
Republican Rep. Christopher Cox will
resign his House seat Tuesday, setting up a
special primary election in California's
48th District for late September or early
October. Cox, confirmed by the Senate late
Friday as SEC chairman, announced Saturday
he had sent Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger his
letter of resignation, giving Schwarzenegger
two weeks to schedule an open primary and
general election. California election law
usually requires a special primary election
to be held eight or nine weeks after the
vacancy, placing the date at either Sept. 27
or Oct. 4. The district, based in Orange
County, is heavily Republican.
State Sen. John Campbell and former state
Assemblywoman Marilyn Brewer appear to be
the two leading contenders for the GOP
nomination. Campbell campaign manager
Jim Terry said Campbell has been raising
money and collecting endorsements, but many
in the political establishment have been
waiting for Cox's confirmation before
jumping into the race. "It's been tentative.
You try to get as far as you can without
getting too out-front of it," Terry said.
Although Campbell and Brewer have yet to
engage with one another, the election might
shape up along ideological lines. Campbell,
who has worked to impose state budget
spending restraints, is campaigning as a
social and fiscal conservative, Terry said.
Brewer is viewed as more moderate, and
the Republican Main Street
Partnership, which backs GOP
moderates, is considering endorsing her.
Campbell filed a June 30 quarterly
fundraising report, listing $270,000 on
hand, of which $200,000 came from a personal
loan. Brewer did not file paperwork to run
until after the last reporting date but has
stated she would commit $150,000 of her
money to launch her campaign.
If any candidate in the open primary gets
more than 50 percent of the vote, the winner
will avoid a general election and win the
seat outright. Under state law, the general
would fall on either Nov. 22 or Nov. 29,
although GOP sources said there has
been discussion in California about trying
to hold the special general on the regular
Nov. 8 election date.
Among other potential candidates is former
GOP Rep. Robert Dornan, who might run
as an American Independent candidate. Dornan
lost his seat to Democratic Rep. Loretta
Sanchez in 1996, failed in his 1998 rematch
attempt and ran unsuccessfully in the GOP
primary against Rep. Dana Rohrabacher in
2004. Former GOP Rep. James Rogan, an
attorney who works in the district, has
indicated he has no plans to run. Democrat
John Graham, a professor at the University
of California at Irvine who has run
unsuccessfully against Cox three times, is a
possible candidate.
